European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Uuralanwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
Banesignature
Kidaro · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 13 games
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
Doomsignature
rubikon155 · 11 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 11 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 11 games
Winter Wyvern
Se · 10 games
uralan
Dark Willow
waveformn · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Hoodwink
waveformn · 1 game
Kezoften banned
cutie · 1 game
Oracle
monodrama · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
461 picks · 279 bans
Ember Spirit
308 picks · 456 bans
Mirana
300 picks · 122 bans
Dark Willow
299 picks · 128 bans
Clockwerk
283 picks · 253 bans
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 290 bans
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 409 bans
Bane
271 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:23
Inner Circle 64%uralan 36%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 48:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawNorma
Clinkzcutie
Doomrubikon155
Storm SpiritPanda
Pangolierdualrazee
UnderlordMiyaoo
Shadow DemonFernans
Keeper of the Lightwaveformn
BaneKidaro
Ogre Magimonodrama
Game 2prediction missed28:32
Inner Circle 62%uralan 38%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by uralan in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyerdualrazee
Necrophoscutie
Clinkzrubikon155
InvokerPanda
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
BeastmasterMiyaoo
HoodwinkFernans
Miranamonodrama
DisruptorKidaro
Dark Willowwaveformn
Game 3prediction missed8:38
Inner Circle 62%uralan 38%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by uralan in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomrubikon155
Tinycutie
UndyingNorma
Outworld DestroyerPanda
Storm Spiritdualrazee
LargoMiyaoo
HoodwinkFernans
Miranawaveformn
JakiroKidaro
Ringmastermonodrama
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 73%
Series resulturalan 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3