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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 30 games
43%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 30 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 27 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 24 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
niche · 22 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 19 games
37%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 19 games
21%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 27 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 20 games
40%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 18 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 13 games
54%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 12 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 12 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
592 picks · 870 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 531 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
451 picks · 409 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
437 picks · 303 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
403 picks · 1037 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 672 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 579 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
368 picks · 552 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total56% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:37
Inner Circle 47%VP.Prodigy 53%
The model gave 53% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 49:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void423
55% · 71 game53% · 69 games
Clinkzcutie
Clinkz
Razor
Razorlaise
53% · 143 games47% · 184 games
Underlordtakizawa
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStojkov
44% · 379 games49% · 483 games
PuckKatsura
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixSe
57% · 184 games52% · 386 games
Tinyraregods
Tiny
Tusk
TuskFernans
44% · 534 games47% · 189 games
MarciJANTER
Marci
Game 2prediction missed28:9
Inner Circle 47%VP.Prodigy 53%
The model gave 53% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 18:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
53% · 358 games53% · 277 games
Bristlebacktakizawa
Bristleback
Kez
Kez423
46% · 79 games45% · 197 games
Muertacutie
Muerta
Razor
Razorlaise
47% · 109 games39% · 293 games
Queen of PainKatsura
Queen of Pain
Warlock
WarlockSe
52% · 382 games52% · 114 games
Bounty Hunterraregods
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
58% · 228 games54% · 275 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct35:34
Inner Circle 50%VP.Prodigy 50%
The model gave 50% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 55:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaver423
49% · 106 games44% · 109 games
Kezcutie
Kez
Razor
Razorlaise
49% · 141 game53% · 161 game
Void SpiritKatsura
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarStojkov
57% · 289 games40% · 298 games
Marstakizawa
Mars
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinFernans
57% · 111 games50% · 241 game
Batriderraregods
Batrider
Jakiro
JakiroSe
51% · 603 games49% · 441 game
WarlockJANTER
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 56%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3