DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 1 game
Clockwerk
flacko · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Norma · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Snapfire
Fernans · 1 game
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 20 games
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 19 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
302 picks · 754 bans
Disruptor
293 picks · 269 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
262 picks · 287 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 707 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 244 bans
Marci
253 picks · 713 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
Inner Circle 36%Yellow Submarine 64%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealeryowaai
Svenbottega
DawnbreakerNorma
Ember SpiritMirele
Storm Spiritdualrazee
MarsInfernal
Chenflacko
Snapfiresayuw
HoodwinkFernans
Elder TitanXakoda
Game 2prediction missed29:11
Inner Circle 33%Yellow Submarine 67%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerdualrazee
Anti-Magebottega
Faceless Voidyowaai
Shadow FiendMirele
MagnusNorma
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
HoodwinkFernans
Snapfiresayuw
Pugnaflacko
Elder TitanXakoda
Game 3prediction missed29:13
Inner Circle 35%Yellow Submarine 65%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetdualrazee
LeshracMirele
Troll Warlordyowaai
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
MagnusNorma
Doombottega
Warlockflacko
SilencerXakoda
TuskFernans
Batridersayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 78%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3