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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 14 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 13 games
31%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
18%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
36%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 10 games
40%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 42 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 35 games
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 31 game
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 25 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
717 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 628 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 255 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
414 picks · 255 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 1168 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
408 picks · 688 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
397 picks · 406 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:28
Inner Circle 37%Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 1:00:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursayowaai
49% · 194 games51% · 147 games
Templar AssassinKami
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand Kingспортик
53% · 209 games58% · 85 games
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNorma
48% · 145 games47% · 221 game
Dragon KnightWorick
Dragon Knight
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFernans
48% · 224 games54% · 135 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
43% · 184 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct9:19
Inner Circle 37%Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 23:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteryowaai
48% · 329 games56% · 41 game
JuggernautKami
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritспортик
45% · 441 game59% · 282 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarNorma
46% · 158 games57% · 310 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
45% · 293 games50% · 201 game
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
49% · 387 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct1:0
Inner Circle 38%Zero Tenacity 62%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 52:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFernans
48% · 223 games51% · 272 games
Dragon KnightWorick
Dragon Knight
Medusa
Medusayowaai
49% · 187 games49% · 261 game
BatriderSe
Batrider
Mars
MarsNorma
52% · 206 games43% · 186 games
AbaddonKami
Abaddon
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetспортик
57% · 237 games50% · 91 game
Night StalkerNefrit
Night Stalker
51% · 43 games
GrimstrokedEsire
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 73%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3