PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
InterActive Philippineswin 1:0series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
InterActive Philippines
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Hoodwink
Shanks · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
411 picks · 536 bans
Muerta
409 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 382 bans
Lion
353 picks · 179 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 435 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 583 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 811 bans
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
InterActive Philippines 15%Execration 85%
The model gave 85% on Execration — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 85%
Series resultInterActive Philippines 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1