Into The Breach vs DGG Esports — prediction DPC2S—ЗЕ 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Into The Breachwin 2:1

series probability

55%45%

probability at match start · final 2:1

DGG Esportsloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Into The Breach

Keeper of the Lightsignature

Era · 8 games

75%

Bane

5up · 7 games

57%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Supream^ · 6 games

33%

Marsoften banned

Xibbe · 6 games

50%

Monkey Kingoften banned

Era · 6 games

33%

Snapfire

Era · 6 games

50%

Enigmaoften banned

Kidaro · 5 games

60%

Skywrath Mage

Ari · 5 games

80%

DGG Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

505 picks · 432 bans

48%

Mars

480 picks · 695 bans

49%

Bane

449 picks · 295 bans

58%

Dragon Knight

438 picks · 529 bans

52%

Storm Spirit

383 picks · 614 bans

56%

Pangolier

374 picks · 602 bans

51%

Sand King

371 picks · 532 bans

55%

Grimstroke

346 picks · 314 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%

Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total55% Into The Breach

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct36:25

Into The Breach 55%DGG Esports 45%

The model gave 55% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 56:53.

Game 2prediction missed31:34

Into The Breach 55%DGG Esports 45%

The model gave 55% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by DGG Esports in 34:44.

Game 3prediction correct28:15

Into The Breach 55%DGG Esports 45%

The model gave 55% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 34:58.

Model check result

Model favoriteInto The Breach · 55%

Series resultInto The Breach 2:1

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 3