Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Snapfiresignature
Era · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
Peksu · 10 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Charlie · 9 games
Lion
Era · 8 games
Medusasignature
Charlie · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Era · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Charlie · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
Peksu · 6 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
349 picks · 516 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 179 bans
Bane
303 picks · 243 bans
Weaver
296 picks · 651 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 735 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 398 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
224 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:22
Into The Breach 28%Entity 72%
The model gave 72% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 19:16.
Game 2prediction correct17:30
Into The Breach 28%Entity 72%
The model gave 72% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 32:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 72%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2