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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Into The Breach

No games played over 6 months.

MOUZ

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 22 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 21 game
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 19 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
471 picks · 386 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
432 picks · 546 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 498 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
389 picks · 204 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 626 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
374 picks · 423 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 579 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
343 picks · 881 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:38
Into The Breach 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 1:05:30.
Game 2prediction correct35:22
Into The Breach 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 52:03.
Game 3prediction correct66:35
Into The Breach 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 1:02:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 59%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3