ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invadersloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KKaiserwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invaders
No games played over 6 months.
Kaiser
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
182 picks · 176 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
172 picks · 71 bans
Sven
169 picks · 246 bans
Earthshaker
168 picks · 166 bans
Earth Spirit
149 picks · 241 bans
Phoenix
149 picks · 201 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Invaders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Invaders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:43
Invaders 54%Kaiser 46%
The model gave 54% on Invaders — the game was taken by Kaiser in 1:01:49.
Game 2prediction missed33:18
Invaders 54%Kaiser 46%
The model gave 54% on Invaders — the game was taken by Kaiser in 33:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvaders · 54%
Series resultKaiser 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2