DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionIInvadersloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invaders
Dark Willow
Kiri · 4 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Alchemist
DaaD- · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
555k · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
555k · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 1 game
BOOM Esports
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
Luna
Pakazs · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Ws · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
257 picks · 374 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 385 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 202 bans
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 539 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Invaders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
Invaders 36%BOOM Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMnz
SpectrePakazs
BatriderChris Luck
TimbersawILICH-
Bounty HunterSmAsH
GyrocopterPanda
ClockwerkYadomi
Vengeful Spiritsl4d1n-
Game 2prediction correct
Invaders 29%BOOM Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2