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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Invaderswin 1:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Silkloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Invaders

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kiri · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
DaaD- · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
555k · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
555k · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 1 game
0%

Silk

Muerta
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
DaaD- · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
d1smar · 2 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Lissex · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 438 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
238 picks · 370 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
223 picks · 294 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Invaders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:24
Invaders 39%Silk 61%
The model gave 61% on Silk — the game was taken by Invaders in 41:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 61%
Series resultInvaders 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1