Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Inverseloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inverse
Grimstroke
Slaw · 4 games
Gyrocopter
DM · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
DM · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
DM · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
314 picks · 638 bans
Void Spirit
292 picks · 365 bans
Mars
255 picks · 434 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 190 bans
Rubick
206 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 615 bans
Keeper of the Light
198 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
197 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:26
Inverse 27%Hokori 73%
The model gave 73% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 32:53.
Game 2prediction correct44:30
Inverse 27%Hokori 73%
The model gave 73% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 46:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 73%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2