Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Inverseloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South America Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inverse
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Lich
Slaw · 1 game
South America Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 298 bans
Marci
283 picks · 527 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 250 bans
Undying
259 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 504 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 321 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Inverse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:31
Inverse 59%South America Rejects 41%
The model gave 59% on Inverse — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 26:29.
Game 2prediction missed20:30
Inverse 59%South America Rejects 41%
The model gave 59% on Inverse — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 28:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteInverse · 59%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2