FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 6 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 6 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
生死 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
371 picks · 763 bans
Void Spirit
343 picks · 456 bans
Mars
293 picks · 516 bans
Earth Spirit
267 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
261 picks · 396 bans
Rubick
240 picks · 142 bans
Keeper of the Light
231 picks · 481 bans
Wraith King
225 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
Invictus Gaming 68%Aster.Aries 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 35:04.
Game 2prediction missed25:14
Invictus Gaming 68%Aster.Aries 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 23:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 68%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2