Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Phoenix
RedPanda · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 7 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
Rubick
TK · 7 games
Tiny
TK · 7 games
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
693 picks · 599 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
449 picks · 1093 bans
Doom
442 picks · 789 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1027 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
Pangolier
379 picks · 828 bans
Enchantress
375 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total72% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Invictus Gaming 72%Aster.Aries 28%
The model gave 72% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 45:26.
Game 2prediction missed35:10
Invictus Gaming 72%Aster.Aries 28%
The model gave 72% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 27:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 72%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2