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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EHOMEloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 20 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 18 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Frisk · 13 games
46%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 9 games
89%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 1004 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 580 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 355 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
341 picks · 527 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
335 picks · 177 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
328 picks · 700 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
306 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 282 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:18
Invictus Gaming 44%EHOME 56%
The model gave 56% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 36:55.
Game 2prediction correct29:15
Invictus Gaming 44%EHOME 56%
The model gave 56% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 33:19.
Game 3prediction correct44:24
Invictus Gaming 44%EHOME 56%
The model gave 56% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 39:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 56%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3