Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 20 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 20 games
Tusk
xNova · 19 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Frisk · 13 games
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
Elder Titan
xNova · 9 games
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
404 picks · 1014 bans
Mars
369 picks · 596 bans
Lion
354 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 359 bans
Void Spirit
332 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
318 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% EHOME
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:27
Invictus Gaming 57%EHOME 43%
The model gave 57% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 40:19.
Game 2prediction missed35:12
Invictus Gaming 57%EHOME 43%
The model gave 57% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 27:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 57%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2