Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Elephantwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 984 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 531 bans
Mars
352 picks · 569 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 711 bans
Grimstroke
335 picks · 335 bans
Lion
309 picks · 170 bans
Tusk
305 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:32
Invictus Gaming 71%Elephant 29%
The model gave 71% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 37:03.
Game 2prediction missed17:26
Invictus Gaming 71%Elephant 29%
The model gave 71% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 39:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 71%
Series resultElephant 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2