Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
y` · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
Tusk
pLAnet · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
855 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
612 picks · 424 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 541 bans
Tusk
521 picks · 428 bans
Nature's Prophet
510 picks · 822 bans
Death Prophet
457 picks · 944 bans
Snapfire
457 picks · 316 bans
Clockwerk
406 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 62%
Hero pool strength58% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:2
Invictus Gaming 15%LGD Gaming 85%
The model gave 85% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:43.
Game 2prediction correct23:12
Invictus Gaming 15%LGD Gaming 85%
The model gave 85% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:24.
Game 3prediction correct26:23
Invictus Gaming 15%LGD Gaming 85%
The model gave 85% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 85%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3