Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 476 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 1018 bans
Tiny
401 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 970 bans
Doom
395 picks · 647 bans
Undying
390 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:24
Invictus Gaming 23%LGD Gaming 77%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:34.
Game 2prediction correct22:34
Invictus Gaming 23%LGD Gaming 77%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 45:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 77%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2