OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 1:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
438 picks · 181 bans
Hoodwink
323 picks · 125 bans
Nyx Assassin
318 picks · 628 bans
Puck
315 picks · 693 bans
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 478 bans
Mars
298 picks · 527 bans
Dragon Knight
269 picks · 339 bans
Lina
265 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total68% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:36
Invictus Gaming 68%Royal Never Give Up 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 32:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 68%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1