Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 533 bans
Bane
350 picks · 255 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 204 bans
Weaver
321 picks · 719 bans
Io
242 picks · 573 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 154 bans
Monkey King
235 picks · 732 bans
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total61% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:13
Invictus Gaming 61%Royal Never Give Up 39%
The model gave 61% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 33:19.
Game 2prediction missed33:16
Invictus Gaming 61%Royal Never Give Up 39%
The model gave 61% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 28:29.
Game 3prediction missed30:23
Invictus Gaming 61%Royal Never Give Up 39%
The model gave 61% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 53:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 61%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3