Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 14 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 13 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
436 picks · 977 bans
Void Spirit
407 picks · 565 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 709 bans
Mars
349 picks · 584 bans
Grimstroke
307 picks · 300 bans
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 208 bans
Lion
258 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:10
Invictus Gaming 64%Team Aster 36%
The model gave 64% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:34.
Game 2prediction missed31:23
Invictus Gaming 64%Team Aster 36%
The model gave 64% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 64%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2