The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 16 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 13 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Magnussignature
White丶Album · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
298 picks · 174 bans
Mars
284 picks · 397 bans
Lina
278 picks · 548 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
250 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 256 bans
Tidehunter
230 picks · 392 bans
Luna
225 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total51% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:26
Invictus Gaming 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:24.
Game 2prediction missed27:12
Invictus Gaming 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 51%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2