Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 21 game
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 19 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 19 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
706 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
578 picks · 503 bans
Beastmaster
478 picks · 1173 bans
Doom
476 picks · 882 bans
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1076 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 863 bans
Mirana
399 picks · 217 bans
Enchantress
396 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total82% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:6
Invictus Gaming 18%Team Aster 82%
The model gave 82% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:35.
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Invictus Gaming 18%Team Aster 82%
The model gave 82% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 45:48.
Game 3prediction correct31:25
Invictus Gaming 18%Team Aster 82%
The model gave 82% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 45:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 82%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3