Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Fusionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 452 bans
Mars
496 picks · 694 bans
Bane
464 picks · 288 bans
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 532 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 553 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 639 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 627 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 78%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:14
Invictus Gaming 55%Team Fusion 45%
The model gave 55% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 40:58.
Game 2prediction missed38:16
Invictus Gaming 55%Team Fusion 45%
The model gave 55% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 36:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 55%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2