The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Undyingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
308 picks · 174 bans
Lina
280 picks · 539 bans
Mars
280 picks · 406 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 370 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
230 picks · 325 bans
Tidehunter
209 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Invictus Gaming 49%Team Undying 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 32:43.
Game 2prediction correct23:49
Invictus Gaming 49%Team Undying 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 44:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2