The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Zerowin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Zero
Pangoliersignature
7e · 7 games
Batridersignature
iceice · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 6 games
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
7e · 5 games
Void Spirit
7e · 5 games
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
578 picks · 611 bans
Rubick
464 picks · 241 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 802 bans
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 383 bans
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 716 bans
Doom
343 picks · 733 bans
Timbersaw
342 picks · 835 bans
Morphling
339 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 69%
Hero pool strength62% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:48
Invictus Gaming 45%Team Zero 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 57:03.
Game 2prediction correct12:42
Invictus Gaming 45%Team Zero 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 40:56.
Game 3prediction correct31:5
Invictus Gaming 45%Team Zero 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 27:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 55%
Series resultTeam Zero 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3