The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 9 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 6 games
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 5 games
Linaoften banned
MoOz · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
307 picks · 178 bans
Lina
283 picks · 540 bans
Mars
283 picks · 404 bans
Hoodwink
263 picks · 90 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 376 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 260 bans
Luna
227 picks · 328 bans
Tidehunter
223 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 15%
Hero pool strength57% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:16
Invictus Gaming 72%Thunder Awaken 28%
The model gave 72% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:09.
Game 2prediction missed8:31
Invictus Gaming 72%Thunder Awaken 28%
The model gave 72% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 38:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 72%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2