Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 10 games
Juggernautoften banned
poyoyo · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
428 picks · 962 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 556 bans
Death Prophet
355 picks · 707 bans
Mars
338 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
313 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 283 bans
Lion
271 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength60% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:40
Invictus Gaming 59%Vici Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 46:37.
Game 2prediction missed30:10
Invictus Gaming 59%Vici Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:28.
Game 3prediction missed21:13
Invictus Gaming 59%Vici Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 59%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3