Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Miranasignature
Dy · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 17 games
Rubick
Kaka · 14 games
Doomsignature
JT- · 13 games
Lion
Kaka · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Kaka · 13 games
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
712 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
483 picks · 1190 bans
Doom
480 picks · 903 bans
Ember Spirit
426 picks · 1084 bans
Pangolier
413 picks · 869 bans
Mirana
406 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
398 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total62% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
Invictus Gaming 38%Xtreme Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:46.
Game 2prediction correct27:17
Invictus Gaming 38%Xtreme Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:11.
Game 3prediction correct26:13
Invictus Gaming 38%Xtreme Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 62%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3