IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Иорданияloss 0:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Монголияwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Иордания
No games played over 6 months.
Монголия
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
474 picks · 506 bans
Rubick
452 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
398 picks · 668 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 615 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
Timbersaw
329 picks · 765 bans
Undying
314 picks · 524 bans
Storm Spirit
313 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Монголия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Иордания
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Иордания 59%Монголия 41%
The model gave 59% on Иордания — the game was taken by Монголия.
Model check result
Model favoriteИордания · 59%
Series resultМонголия 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1