ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionIIrreversiblewin 1:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Irreversible
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 19 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
NARMAN · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 17 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Juggernautoften banned
kAAN · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 981 bans
Lion
372 picks · 195 bans
Mars
363 picks · 594 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
295 picks · 650 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 168 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 224 bans
Void Spirit
289 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 53%
Series resultIrreversible 1:0
Series predictionmissed