ВКСЛ 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs predictionИИТМОloss 0:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:1
УрФУwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ИТМО
No games played over 6 months.
УрФУ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
737 picks · 582 bans
Disruptor
610 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
557 picks · 1292 bans
Doom
550 picks · 1097 bans
Techies
496 picks · 558 bans
Pangolier
472 picks · 955 bans
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1120 bans
Enchantress
453 picks · 647 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% ИТМО
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% УрФУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ИТМО 24%УрФУ 76%
The model gave 76% on УрФУ — the game was taken by УрФУ.
Model check result
Model favoriteУрФУ · 76%
Series resultУрФУ 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1