?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 1:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
25%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 23 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 20 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 18 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 14 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
509 picks · 689 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
473 picks · 597 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
470 picks · 564 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 543 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 950 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength63% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total88% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:43
Ivory 25%BOOM Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKen
51% · 390 games57% · 153 games
MagnusJaCkky
Magnus
Pangolier
PangolierRupido
48% · 353 games50% · 112 games
LinaMac
Lina
Riki
RikiDric~
55% · 24 games51% · 127 games
Dark SeerFbz
Dark Seer
51% · 54 games
Spirit BreakerTims
Spirit Breaker
40% · 321 game
BatriderJaunuel
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed46:21
Ivory 24%BOOM Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Ivory in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKen
48% · 143 games44% · 106 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRupido
47% · 152 games50% · 197 games
DoomFbz
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDric~
49% · 339 games55% · 116 games
Monkey KingMac
Monkey King
62% · 22 games
VenomancerJaunuel
Venomancer
54% · 193 games
LionTims
Lion
Game 3prediction correct13:38
Ivory 26%BOOM Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKen
43% · 258 games44% · 75 games
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
Phantom Assassin
Magnus
MagnusRupido
54% · 150 games49% · 73 games
EarthshakerMac
Earthshaker
Riki
RikiDric~
63% · 32 games62% · 64 games
Dark SeerFbz
Dark Seer
62% · 21 game
Spirit BreakerTims
Spirit Breaker
40% · 207 games
BatriderJaunuel
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 88%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3