PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ivory
Gyrocopteroften banned
Dric~ · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
Dric~ · 6 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ken · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Teehee · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
540 picks · 854 bans
Tusk
519 picks · 370 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 642 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 589 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 782 bans
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 581 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 555 bans
Mars
341 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:13
Ivory 71%Carstensz Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 28:37.
Game 2prediction correct27:16
Ivory 71%Carstensz Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 37:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 71%
Series resultIvory 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2