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Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
0%

InterActive Philippines

Lina
Linasignature
Nishababy · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
476 picks · 610 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
461 picks · 398 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
456 picks · 569 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 543 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 486 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 780 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
404 picks · 902 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:35
Ivory 52%InterActive Philippines 48%
The model gave 52% on Ivory — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKen
53% · 85 games48% · 159 games
PuckNishababy
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRupido
49% · 59 games
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterDric~
53% · 15 games
Game 2prediction correct41:33
Ivory 54%InterActive Philippines 46%
The model gave 54% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 47:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckKen
47% · 85 games49% · 177 games
TinyNishababy
Tiny
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRupido
43% · 75 games
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterDric~
62% · 17 games
Game 3prediction correct38:20
Ivory 56%InterActive Philippines 44%
The model gave 56% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckKen
60% · 41 game42% · 86 games
SniperNishababy
Sniper
Sand King
Sand KingRupido
64% · 21 game
Muerta
MuertaDric~
50% · 24 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 59%
Series resultIvory 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3