ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PlayTimewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ivory
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 7 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
Dric~ · 6 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ken · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Venomancer
Teehee · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
PlayTime
Tusk
DJ · 4 games
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Armel · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Armel · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
Bane
Kuku · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
542 picks · 759 bans
Tusk
491 picks · 343 bans
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 638 bans
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Demon
373 picks · 657 bans
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 559 bans
Mars
339 picks · 465 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
Ivory 40%PlayTime 60%
The model gave 60% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonKarma丶
Shadow FiendGabbi
UnderlordRupido
PuckArmel
Ember SpiritKen
MarsJG
Shadow DemonDric~
MuertaDJ
Skywrath MageTeehee
Treant ProtectorKuku
Game 2prediction correct21:28
Ivory 40%PlayTime 60%
The model gave 60% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritKen
Phantom AssassinGabbi
Templar AssassinKarma丶
PuckArmel
MarsRupido
BrewmasterJG
TuskDric~
WarlockKuku
Skywrath MageTeehee
WindrangerDJ
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 66%
Series resultPlayTime 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2