BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TATeam Aureuswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ivory
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Tinysignature
Rupido · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Ringmaster
Dric~ · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Ken · 3 games
Team Aureus
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 691 bans
Shadow Shaman
285 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
255 picks · 222 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
251 picks · 252 bans
Dark Willow
247 picks · 105 bans
Marci
246 picks · 600 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ivory 26%Team Aureus 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus.
Game 2prediction correct
Ivory 26%Team Aureus 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 74%
Series resultTeam Aureus 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2