PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TTeklawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ivory
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 6 games
Tinysignature
Rupido · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Tekla
Dragon Knight
Yowe · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
437 picks · 408 bans
Snapfire
420 picks · 214 bans
Puck
347 picks · 915 bans
Pugna
325 picks · 366 bans
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 224 bans
Batrider
279 picks · 667 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 847 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Tekla
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Tekla
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
Ivory 51%Tekla 49%
The model gave 51% on Ivory — the game was taken by Tekla in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetKen
Dragon KnightAbat
Sand KingRupido
InvokerYowe
TinyDric~
GyrocopterTeehee
Game 2prediction correct6:35
Ivory 48%Tekla 52%
The model gave 52% on Tekla — the game was taken by Tekla in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritKen
UrsaAbat
Primal BeastRupido
Nature's ProphetYowe
SnapfireDric~
EnchantressTeehee
Model check result
Model favoriteTekla · 52%
Series resultTekla 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2