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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
33%

Yangon Galacticos

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 4 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 585 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
486 picks · 438 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
468 picks · 235 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
368 picks · 750 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
336 picks · 768 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 512 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
320 picks · 291 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Ivory
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:22
Ivory 48%Yangon Galacticos 52%
The model gave 52% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Ivory in 49:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Undying
UndyingRupido
46% · 37 games57% · 49 games
UrsaKsh
Ursa
Kunkka
KunkkaKen
51% · 102 games45% · 159 games
PangolierJG
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDric~
43% · 186 games58% · 117 games
Dragon KnightYoung PH
Dragon Knight
Game 2prediction correct17:26
Ivory 47%Yangon Galacticos 53%
The model gave 53% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKen
49% · 118 games51% · 212 games
GyrocopterKsh
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierRupido
48% · 365 games52% · 365 games
TinyYoung PH
Tiny
Tusk
TuskDric~
48% · 250 games52% · 156 games
TimbersawJG
Timbersaw
Game 3prediction missed31:15
Ivory 44%Yangon Galacticos 56%
The model gave 56% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Ivory in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKen
54% · 162 games52% · 335 games
GyrocopterKsh
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyRupido
48% · 378 games54% · 277 games
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderDric~
43% · 217 games49% · 145 games
Centaur WarrunnerJG
Centaur Warrunner
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 57%
Series resultIvory 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3