DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ivory
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
Teehee · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 4 games
Yangon Galacticos
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Young PH · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
631 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
511 picks · 449 bans
Tusk
482 picks · 387 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1068 bans
Puck
380 picks · 799 bans
Mars
376 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total67% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ivory 67%Yangon Galacticos 33%
The model gave 67% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory.
Game 2prediction correct37:26
Ivory 59%Yangon Galacticos 41%
The model gave 59% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterKarma丶
GyrocopterKsh
Storm SpiritKen
InvokerYoung PH
MarsRupido
HoodwinkDric~
BaneTeehee
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 67%
Series resultIvory 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2