Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Tiny
Qupe · 25 games
Miranaoften banned
Qupe · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
Qupe · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 12 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 12 games
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
411 picks · 414 bans
Tiny
392 picks · 376 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 260 bans
Mirana
299 picks · 308 bans
Treant Protector
253 picks · 301 bans
Snapfire
240 picks · 124 bans
Crystal Maiden
212 picks · 152 bans
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 565 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:22
IVY 41%D2 Hustlers 59%
The model gave 59% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 44:27.
Game 2prediction correct27:22
IVY 41%D2 Hustlers 59%
The model gave 59% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 44:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 59%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2