Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GGUBINA13loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 11 games
Snapfire
Qupe · 11 games
Bane
jmn- · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Max · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Chensignature
jmn- · 8 games
GUBINA13
Arc Warden
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
HappyDyurara · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Yuragi · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Antares · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Antares · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Antares · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
589 picks · 450 bans
Puck
406 picks · 865 bans
Mars
401 picks · 620 bans
Dragon Knight
383 picks · 492 bans
Bane
351 picks · 233 bans
Snapfire
343 picks · 174 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 595 bans
Chaos Knight
293 picks · 650 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:16
IVY 54%GUBINA13 46%
The model gave 54% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLowskill
Faceless VoidAlberkaaa
TinyMo13ei
Skywrath MageAntares
TimbersawMax
ClockwerkHappyDyurara
SnapfireQupe
Omniknightjmn-
Game 2prediction correct25:11
IVY 54%GUBINA13 46%
The model gave 54% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLowskill
NecrophosAlberkaaa
TinyMo13ei
Skywrath MageAntares
TimbersawMax
EnchantressHappyDyurara
SnapfireQupe
Omniknightjmn-
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 60%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2