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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 18 games
39%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 15 games
27%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
jmn- · 13 games
31%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Daxak · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
OwnedMe · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Daxak · 2 games
50%
Techies
Techies
MiLAN · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
MiLAN · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
swedenstrong · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 606 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 490 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1060 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
425 picks · 714 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1008 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 372 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
384 picks · 606 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 203 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 78%
Hero pool strength59% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
IVY 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 47:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderMoonlight
46% · 123 games49% · 87 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
46% · 70 games52% · 98 games
SlarkDaxak
Slark
Visage
VisageMikSa`
58% · 82 games43% · 65 games
UnderlordOwnedMe
Underlord
Oracle
Oraclejmn-
59% · 38 games58% · 53 games
MedusaMiLAN
Medusa
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerrue
56% · 31 game34% · 41 game
Pugnaswedenstrong
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed19:7
IVY 41%Level UP 59%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by IVY in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOtaker
50% · 131 game48% · 91 game
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Visage
VisageMikSa`
55% · 141 game49% · 111 games
BloodseekerDaxak
Bloodseeker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
46% · 292 games51% · 163 games
EnigmaOwnedMe
Enigma
Techies
Techiesrue
55% · 91 game48% · 212 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerjmn-
45% · 44 games50% · 122 games
SilencerMiLAN
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct4:33
IVY 40%Level UP 60%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMoonlight
49% · 57 games54% · 103 games
Death ProphetLorenof
Death Prophet
Ursa
UrsaOtaker
53% · 117 games46% · 67 games
BloodseekerDaxak
Bloodseeker
Magnus
MagnusMikSa`
43% · 93 games47% · 76 games
Primal BeastOwnedMe
Primal Beast
Techies
Techiesrue
51% · 100 games50% · 114 games
MiranaMiLAN
Mirana
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterjmn-
55% · 37 games56% · 44 games
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 65%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3