Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monaspaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
261 picks · 348 bans
Tidehunter
255 picks · 383 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 579 bans
Bane
220 picks · 146 bans
Lion
217 picks · 100 bans
Void Spirit
217 picks · 248 bans
Lina
212 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
210 picks · 261 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:14
IVY 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 31:47.
Game 2prediction missed33:25
IVY 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 36:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 57%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2