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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 27 games
48%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Qupe · 23 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 20 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 16 games
69%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 12 games
17%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mo13ei · 12 games
50%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 19 games
84%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 16 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tiny
OmaR · 11 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
598 picks · 390 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
533 picks · 518 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 430 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
414 picks · 490 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 369 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 185 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 758 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 202 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 77%
Hero pool strength64% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:48
IVY 41%PSG Quest 59%
The model gave 59% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 27:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMo13ei
57% · 151 game45% · 143 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerOwnedMe
56% · 49 games48% · 116 games
BroodmotherWuiter
Broodmother
Slark
Slarkpio65
57% · 97 games54% · 130 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Tiny
TinyQupe
48% · 578 games47% · 340 games
TuskNo!ob
Tusk
Io
Iojmn-
50% · 99 games40% · 245 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct12:34
IVY 39%PSG Quest 61%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracpio65
51% · 268 games53% · 83 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Puck
PuckMo13ei
53% · 306 games47% · 283 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Lycan
LycanOwnedMe
60% · 118 games44% · 259 games
MarsWuiter
Mars
Phoenix
Phoenixjmn-
46% · 166 games44% · 313 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
52% · 334 games52% · 254 games
MarciKaori
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 70%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2