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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 18 games
61%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
jmn- · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Max · 10 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Max · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
jmn- · 7 games
71%

Team Bald Reborn

Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Gorgc · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Excalibur · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Excalibur · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Pablo · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 9 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Gorgc · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
bengan · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 461 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 686 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 536 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
398 picks · 276 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 829 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 572 bans
52%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 663 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 642 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:32
IVY 47%Team Bald Reborn 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by IVY in 49:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLowskill
57% · 80 games48% · 156 games
RazorGorgc
Razor
Timbersaw
TimbersawMo13ei
56% · 125 games55% · 46 games
ZeusExcalibur
Zeus
Venomancer
VenomancerMax
65% · 34 games43% · 160 games
Dragon KnightZipZaper
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
44% · 151 game50% · 231 game
TinyPablo
Tiny
Snapfire
Snapfirejmn-
46% · 219 games42% · 16 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct22:34
IVY 47%Team Bald Reborn 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 57:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLowskill
55% · 84 games56% · 247 games
WeaverGorgc
Weaver
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
49% · 140 games39% · 10 games
Lone DruidExcalibur
Lone Druid
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMax
46% · 87 games50% · 87 games
BrewmasterZipZaper
Brewmaster
Enchantress
Enchantressjmn-
52% · 61 game48% · 72 games
ZeusPablo
Zeus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
45% · 58 games46% · 14 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction missed
IVY 47%Team Bald Reborn 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by IVY.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 53%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3