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European Pro League Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 33 games
52%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 25 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 17 games
59%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
15%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 13 games
31%

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 21 game
48%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 16 games
44%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 14 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
75%
Lina
Linasignature
Stojkov · 12 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 11 games
27%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Mary_y · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 359 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
338 picks · 326 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
252 picks · 494 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
252 picks · 572 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
242 picks · 454 bans
51%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
233 picks · 596 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
223 picks · 131 bans
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 143 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:3
IVY 53%Water Rune Enjoyers 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorOwnedMe
48% · 264 games46% · 109 games
Treant Protectory0nd
Treant Protector
Tusk
TuskQupe
53% · 222 games49% · 255 games
Death ProphetBliNcc
Death Prophet
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightpio65
53% · 171 game52% · 150 games
MorphlingPalantimos
Morphling
Rubick
RubickMo13ei
50% · 187 games48% · 128 games
DoomStojkov
Doom
Silencer
Silencerjmn-
53% · 79 games47% · 281 game
SnapfireMary_y
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct21:16
IVY 57%Water Rune Enjoyers 43%
The model gave 57% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperMo13ei
48% · 127 games45% · 240 games
TerrorbladePalantimos
Terrorblade
Doom
Doompio65
49% · 124 games59% · 140 games
LycanBliNcc
Lycan
Visage
VisageOwnedMe
58% · 129 games49% · 165 games
ZeusStojkov
Zeus
Tiny
TinyQupe
50% · 430 games51% · 146 games
Treant Protectory0nd
Treant Protector
Bane
Banejmn-
52% · 231 game41% · 350 games
SnapfireMary_y
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct34:18
IVY 53%Water Rune Enjoyers 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMo13ei
61% · 231 game55% · 125 games
MedusaPalantimos
Medusa
Lina
Linapio65
48% · 164 games47% · 110 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOwnedMe
51% · 45 games48% · 228 games
SnapfireBliNcc
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaQupe
49% · 140 games50% · 123 games
Treant ProtectorMary_y
Treant Protector
Tusk
Tuskjmn-
48% · 193 games45% · 187 games
Clockwerky0nd
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 58%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3