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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 25 games
52%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Qupe · 19 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 14 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 12 games
17%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 12 games
33%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 11 games
55%

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
y0nd · 11 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
BliNcc · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 9 games
22%
Razor
Razoroften banned
BliNcc · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mary_y · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
493 picks · 335 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
480 picks · 468 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 413 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
343 picks · 336 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
343 picks · 390 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 156 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
268 picks · 671 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
256 picks · 624 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total64% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:15
IVY 59%Water Rune Enjoyers 41%
The model gave 59% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracpio65
55% · 209 games43% · 97 games
Drow RangerPalantimos
Drow Ranger
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOwnedMe
55% · 207 games45% · 286 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderMo13ei
54% · 191 game45% · 303 games
Death ProphetBliNcc
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
51% · 235 games46% · 294 games
RubickMary_y
Rubick
Undying
Undyingjmn-
56% · 209 games53% · 71 game
Earth Spirity0nd
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed22:43
IVY 57%Water Rune Enjoyers 43%
The model gave 57% on IVY — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 54:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracpio65
48% · 126 games51% · 161 game
UrsaPalantimos
Ursa
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMo13ei
42% · 12 games51% · 206 games
Keeper of the LightStojkov
Keeper of the Light
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOwnedMe
53% · 206 games53% · 255 games
EnigmaBliNcc
Enigma
Tiny
TinyQupe
48% · 502 games52% · 355 games
Clockwerky0nd
Clockwerk
Rubick
Rubickjmn-
45% · 283 games52% · 152 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct18:10
IVY 58%Water Rune Enjoyers 42%
The model gave 58% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepio65
41% · 187 games54% · 157 games
Nature's ProphetPalantimos
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaOwnedMe
56% · 194 games54% · 190 games
LeshracStojkov
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMo13ei
50% · 376 games46% · 355 games
SnapfireBliNcc
Snapfire
Undying
Undyingjmn-
50% · 226 games53% · 228 games
Treant Protectory0nd
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
54% · 298 games43% · 351 game
RubickMary_y
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 64%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3